{"v":1,"generatedAt":"2026-10-09T21:16:11.112Z","score":65,"band":"Warm","asOf":"2026-10-09","oldestComponentDate":"2026-09-01","method":"Equal-weight mean of each component's percentile rank versus its full available history (mid-rank for ties), oriented so 100 = hotter or riskier. Components: CAPE (high = hot), VIX (low = hot), NFCI (low = hot), 10Y-2Y (low = hot), Sahm rule (high = hot).","disclaimer":"A risk gauge, not a prediction, not investment advice.","components":[{"id":"cape","name":"Shiller PE (CAPE)","unit":"x","direction":"high","freq":"Monthly (latest daily)","note":"Price divided by 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. Higher = richer valuation.","source":"multpl.com, from Robert Shiller's data","url":"https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table/by-month","rights":"Cited source","citation":"Shiller PE ratio by month, multpl.com (based on data from Robert Shiller, Irrational Exuberance); https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table/by-month","value":41.62,"date":"2026-10-08","since":"1871-02-01","n":1869,"pct":99.1,"score":99.1,"spark":[["2025-11-01",39.16],["2025-12-01",39.59],["2026-01-01",39.65],["2026-02-01",39.02],["2026-03-01",37.04],["2026-04-01",38.15],["2026-05-01",40.11],["2026-06-01",40.16],["2026-07-01",40.02],["2026-08-01",41.13],["2026-09-01",40.9],["2026-10-08",41.62]],"via":"multpl-table"},{"id":"vix","name":"VIX (daily close)","unit":"","direction":"low","freq":"Daily","note":"Lower = calmer options market. Very low readings can signal complacency.","source":"Cboe via FRED","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS","rights":"Copyrighted: citation required","citation":"Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE Volatility Index: VIX [VIXCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS","fred":"VIXCLS","value":15.41,"date":"2026-10-08","since":"1990-01-02","n":9291,"pct":34.6,"score":65.4,"spark":[["2025-10-08",16.3],["2025-10-14",20.81],["2025-10-21",17.87],["2025-10-27",15.79],["2025-10-31",17.44],["2025-11-07",19.08],["2025-11-13",20],["2025-11-20",26.42],["2025-11-26",17.19],["2025-12-02",16.59],["2025-12-09",16.93],["2025-12-15",16.5],["2025-12-19",14.91],["2025-12-29",14.2],["2026-01-05",14.9],["2026-01-12",15.12],["2026-01-16",15.86],["2026-01-22",15.64],["2026-01-29",16.88],["2026-02-04",18.64],["2026-02-10",17.79],["2026-02-17",20.29],["2026-02-23",21.01],["2026-03-02",21.44],["2026-03-06",29.49],["2026-03-12",27.29],["2026-03-19",24.06],["2026-03-25",25.33],["2026-03-31",25.25],["2026-04-08",21.04],["2026-04-14",18.36],["2026-04-21",19.5],["2026-04-27",18.02],["2026-05-01",16.99],["2026-05-08",17.19],["2026-05-14",17.26],["2026-05-20",17.44],["2026-05-27",16.29],["2026-06-02",15.77],["2026-06-09",19.87],["2026-06-15",16.2],["2026-06-19",16.78],["2026-06-26",18.41],["2026-07-02",16.15],["2026-07-08",16.9],["2026-07-15",15.67],["2026-07-21",17.05],["2026-07-28",18.21],["2026-08-03",15.86],["2026-08-07",14.9],["2026-08-14",14.25],["2026-08-20",16.01],["2026-08-26",15.21],["2026-09-02",15.2],["2026-09-08",15.72],["2026-09-15",17.2],["2026-09-21",14.87],["2026-09-25",14.87],["2026-10-02",15.31],["2026-10-08",15.41]],"via":"fred-api"},{"id":"nfci","name":"Chicago Fed NFCI","unit":"","direction":"low","freq":"Weekly","note":"Negative = looser than average financial conditions; positive = tighter.","source":"Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI","rights":"Copyrighted: citation required","citation":"Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index [NFCI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI","fred":"NFCI","value":-0.494,"date":"2026-10-02","since":"1971-01-08","n":2909,"pct":39.7,"score":60.3,"spark":[["2025-10-03",-0.523],["2025-10-10",-0.521],["2025-10-17",-0.518],["2025-10-24",-0.515],["2025-10-31",-0.511],["2025-11-07",-0.508],["2025-11-14",-0.506],["2025-11-21",-0.505],["2025-11-28",-0.507],["2025-12-05",-0.51],["2025-12-12",-0.515],["2025-12-19",-0.524],["2025-12-26",-0.535],["2026-01-02",-0.547],["2026-01-09",-0.558],["2026-01-16",-0.565],["2026-01-23",-0.566],["2026-01-30",-0.563],["2026-02-06",-0.554],["2026-02-13",-0.541],["2026-02-20",-0.525],["2026-02-27",-0.506],["2026-03-06",-0.488],["2026-03-13",-0.472],["2026-03-20",-0.463],["2026-03-27",-0.459],["2026-04-03",-0.464],["2026-04-10",-0.474],["2026-04-17",-0.485],["2026-04-24",-0.495],["2026-05-01",-0.502],["2026-05-08",-0.507],["2026-05-15",-0.508],["2026-05-22",-0.507],["2026-05-29",-0.506],["2026-06-05",-0.505],["2026-06-12",-0.505],["2026-06-19",-0.507],["2026-06-26",-0.51],["2026-07-03",-0.516],["2026-07-10",-0.522],["2026-07-17",-0.528],["2026-07-24",-0.535],["2026-07-31",-0.54],["2026-08-07",-0.545],["2026-08-14",-0.549],["2026-08-21",-0.551],["2026-08-28",-0.549],["2026-09-04",-0.545],["2026-09-11",-0.536],["2026-09-18",-0.524],["2026-09-25",-0.51],["2026-10-02",-0.494]],"via":"fred-api"},{"id":"curve","name":"10Y minus 2Y Treasury","unit":"%","direction":"low","freq":"Daily","note":"Lower or negative (inverted) = flatter curve, historically a late-cycle signal.","source":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y","rights":"Copyrighted: citation required","citation":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y","fred":"T10Y2Y","value":0.44,"date":"2026-10-09","since":"1976-06-01","n":12587,"pct":35.9,"score":64.1,"spark":[["2025-10-09",0.54],["2025-10-16",0.58],["2025-10-22",0.52],["2025-10-29",0.49],["2025-11-04",0.52],["2025-11-10",0.55],["2025-11-17",0.53],["2025-11-24",0.58],["2025-12-01",0.55],["2025-12-05",0.58],["2025-12-11",0.62],["2025-12-18",0.66],["2025-12-24",0.68],["2025-12-31",0.71],["2026-01-07",0.68],["2026-01-14",0.64],["2026-01-21",0.66],["2026-01-27",0.71],["2026-02-02",0.72],["2026-02-09",0.74],["2026-02-13",0.64],["2026-02-20",0.6],["2026-02-26",0.6],["2026-03-04",0.55],["2026-03-11",0.57],["2026-03-17",0.52],["2026-03-23",0.51],["2026-03-27",0.56],["2026-04-03",0.51],["2026-04-09",0.51],["2026-04-15",0.53],["2026-04-21",0.52],["2026-04-28",0.52],["2026-05-04",0.5],["2026-05-08",0.48],["2026-05-14",0.47],["2026-05-21",0.49],["2026-05-28",0.46],["2026-06-03",0.41],["2026-06-09",0.4],["2026-06-15",0.4],["2026-06-23",0.34],["2026-06-29",0.28],["2026-07-06",0.35],["2026-07-10",0.35],["2026-07-17",0.37],["2026-07-23",0.34],["2026-07-29",0.45],["2026-08-04",0.43],["2026-08-11",0.48],["2026-08-17",0.53],["2026-08-21",0.5],["2026-08-27",0.47],["2026-09-03",0.43],["2026-09-10",0.39],["2026-09-16",0.27],["2026-09-22",0.25],["2026-09-29",0.37],["2026-10-05",0.47],["2026-10-09",0.44]],"via":"fred-api"},{"id":"sahm","name":"Sahm rule (real-time)","unit":"pp","direction":"high","freq":"Monthly","note":"Higher = unemployment rising faster vs its 12-month low. 0.50 or more has marked past recession starts.","source":"Claudia Sahm via FRED","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME","rights":"Public domain: citation requested","citation":"Sahm, Claudia, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMREALTIME], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME","fred":"SAHMREALTIME","value":0,"date":"2026-09-01","since":"1959-12-01","n":801,"pct":38.4,"score":38.4,"spark":[["2025-09-01",0.23],["2025-11-01",0.43],["2025-12-01",0.35],["2026-01-01",0.3],["2026-02-01",0.27],["2026-03-01",0.2],["2026-04-01",0.13],["2026-05-01",0.1],["2026-06-01",0.07],["2026-07-01",-0.03],["2026-08-01",-0.07],["2026-09-01",0]],"via":"fred-api"}],"concentration":{"name":"S&P 500 top-10 weight","value":37.6,"unit":"%","asOf":"2026-07-31","label":"Share of S&P 500 index weight held by the 10 largest constituents","source":"S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500 fact sheet (as of July 31, 2026)","url":"https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/","history":[{"asOf":"2026-03-31","value":36.5},{"asOf":"2026-07-31","value":37.6}],"note":"Hand-maintained from the official fact sheet each quarter. Not part of the gauge (no long free history)."},"capex":{"note":"Cash capital expenditures from each company's cash flow statement (10-Q or 10-K). Quarter values are reported 3-month figures or year-to-date minus the prior year-to-date figure in the same fiscal year. Microsoft excludes finance leases. Oracle fiscal quarters end Aug, Nov, Feb and May.","source":"SEC EDGAR filings","companies":[{"ticker":"MSFT","company":"Microsoft","lineItem":"Additions to property and equipment","xbrlTag":"us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment","rows":[{"start":"2025-07-01","end":"2025-09-30","usdBn":19.39,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2025-10-29","accession":"0001193125-25-256321","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312525256321/0001193125-25-256321-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312525256321/msft-20250930.htm","derived":null},{"start":"2025-10-01","end":"2025-12-31","usdBn":29.88,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-01-28","accession":"0001193125-26-027207","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526027207/0001193125-26-027207-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526027207/msft-20251231.htm","derived":null},{"start":"2026-01-01","end":"2026-03-31","usdBn":30.88,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-04-29","accession":"0001193125-26-191507","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526191507/0001193125-26-191507-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526191507/msft-20260331.htm","derived":null},{"start":"2026-04-01","end":"2026-06-30","usdBn":35.8,"form":"10-K","filed":"2026-07-29","accession":"0001193125-26-323660","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm","derived":"10-K 2025-07-01 to 2026-06-30 (115,948M) minus 10-Q 2025-07-01 to 2026-03-31 (80,146M)"}]},{"ticker":"GOOGL","company":"Alphabet","lineItem":"Purchases of property and equipment","xbrlTag":"us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment","rows":[{"start":"2025-07-01","end":"2025-09-30","usdBn":23.95,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2025-10-30","accession":"0001652044-25-000091","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204425000091/0001652044-25-000091-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204425000091/goog-20250930.htm","derived":"10-Q 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-30 (63,596M) minus 10-Q 2025-01-01 to 2025-06-30 (39,643M)"},{"start":"2025-10-01","end":"2025-12-31","usdBn":27.85,"form":"10-K","filed":"2026-02-05","accession":"0001652044-26-000018","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/goog-20251231.htm","derived":"10-K 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 (91,447M) minus 10-Q 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-30 (63,596M)"},{"start":"2026-01-01","end":"2026-03-31","usdBn":35.67,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-04-30","accession":"0001652044-26-000048","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000048/0001652044-26-000048-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000048/goog-20260331.htm","derived":null},{"start":"2026-04-01","end":"2026-06-30","usdBn":44.92,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-07-23","accession":"0001652044-26-000071","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000071/0001652044-26-000071-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000071/goog-20260630.htm","derived":"10-Q 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30 (80,598M) minus 10-Q 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (35,674M)"}]},{"ticker":"AMZN","company":"Amazon","lineItem":"Purchases of property and equipment","xbrlTag":"us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets","rows":[{"start":"2025-07-01","end":"2025-09-30","usdBn":35.09,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2025-10-31","accession":"0001018724-25-000123","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872425000123/0001018724-25-000123-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872425000123/amzn-20250930.htm","derived":null},{"start":"2025-10-01","end":"2025-12-31","usdBn":39.52,"form":"10-K","filed":"2026-02-06","accession":"0001018724-26-000004","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/amzn-20251231.htm","derived":"10-K 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 (131,819M) minus 10-Q 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-30 (92,297M)"},{"start":"2026-01-01","end":"2026-03-31","usdBn":44.2,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-04-30","accession":"0001018724-26-000014","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000014/0001018724-26-000014-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000014/amzn-20260331.htm","derived":null},{"start":"2026-04-01","end":"2026-06-30","usdBn":54.21,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-07-31","accession":"0001018724-26-000026","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/0001018724-26-000026-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm","derived":null}]},{"ticker":"META","company":"Meta","lineItem":"Purchases of property and equipment","xbrlTag":"us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment","rows":[{"start":"2025-07-01","end":"2025-09-30","usdBn":18.83,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2025-10-30","accession":"0001628280-25-047240","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828025047240/0001628280-25-047240-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828025047240/meta-20250930.htm","derived":"10-Q 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-30 (48,308M) minus 10-Q 2025-01-01 to 2025-06-30 (29,479M)"},{"start":"2025-10-01","end":"2025-12-31","usdBn":21.38,"form":"10-K","filed":"2026-01-29","accession":"0001628280-26-003942","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003942/0001628280-26-003942-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026003942/meta-20251231.htm","derived":"10-K 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 (69,691M) minus 10-Q 2025-01-01 to 2025-09-30 (48,308M)"},{"start":"2026-01-01","end":"2026-03-31","usdBn":19,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-04-30","accession":"0001628280-26-028526","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026028526/0001628280-26-028526-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026028526/meta-20260331.htm","derived":null},{"start":"2026-04-01","end":"2026-06-30","usdBn":30.12,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-07-30","accession":"0001628280-26-050705","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026050705/0001628280-26-050705-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026050705/meta-20260630.htm","derived":"10-Q 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30 (49,113M) minus 10-Q 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 (18,997M)"}]},{"ticker":"ORCL","company":"Oracle","lineItem":"Capital expenditures","xbrlTag":"us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment","rows":[{"start":"2025-09-01","end":"2025-11-30","usdBn":12.03,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2025-12-11","accession":"0001193125-25-315925","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312525315925/0001193125-25-315925-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312525315925/orcl-20251130.htm","derived":"10-Q 2025-06-01 to 2025-11-30 (20,535M) minus 10-Q 2025-06-01 to 2025-08-31 (8,502M)"},{"start":"2025-12-01","end":"2026-02-28","usdBn":18.64,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-03-11","accession":"0001193125-26-101045","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526101045/0001193125-26-101045-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526101045/orcl-20260228.htm","derived":"10-Q 2025-06-01 to 2026-02-28 (39,170M) minus 10-Q 2025-06-01 to 2025-11-30 (20,535M)"},{"start":"2026-03-01","end":"2026-05-31","usdBn":16.49,"form":"10-K","filed":"2026-06-22","accession":"0001193125-26-277521","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/orcl-20260531.htm","derived":"10-K 2025-06-01 to 2026-05-31 (55,663M) minus 10-Q 2025-06-01 to 2026-02-28 (39,170M)"},{"start":"2026-06-01","end":"2026-08-31","usdBn":28.5,"form":"10-Q","filed":"2026-09-11","accession":"0001193125-26-389274","filingUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/0001193125-26-389274-index.htm","documentUrl":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm","derived":null}]}]}}